Gibraltar Unveils Dedicated Prediction Markets Regulation Framework

Gibraltar has become the first jurisdiction worldwide to launch a standalone regulatory framework dedicated to the prediction markets sector, marking a significant milestone for the industry. The move holds particular importance for the territory, where gambling contributes approximately 25% of GDP. The 24-page regulatory document establishes comprehensive guidelines for Gibraltar prediction markets, requiring all event contracts to receive approval and certification from the Gambling Authority. The framework adopts an activity-based and risk-based approach to regulation, addressing critical areas including market integrity, participant protection, financial crime prevention, governance, and operational resilience. As a result, operators in this space now face a clear regulatory pathway designed specifically for their business model.

Gibraltar Launches World’s First Standalone Prediction Markets Framework

Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham confirmed that Gibraltar licensed its first prediction markets operator on March 26, 2026, with the formal announcement made on April 8, 2026. Predict Street Ltd received approval as a betting intermediary under the existing Gambling Act 2005, appearing on the official list of approved licensed operators. The company operates as the official prediction market partner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and runs on infrastructure provided by a blockchain firm based in Abu Dhabi.

Feetham announced the development in Parliament following his attendance at Consensus Hong Kong, describing the approval as processed in record time. “This is the pace at which we must act to help offset at least some of the loss of tax revenues following the recent increase in UK Gambling Duty, while continuing to grow our local ecosystem,” he stated.

The licensing positions Gibraltar as one of few European jurisdictions permitting prediction markets, contrasting sharply with France, the Netherlands, Romania, Ukraine, and Portugal. Prediction markets enable users to trade contracts on real-world event outcomes, functioning as both investment tools and engagement platforms.

Despite the existing licensing framework, Gibraltar continues developing a bespoke prediction markets regime under its ongoing Gambling Act overhaul.

Who Has Been Licensed Under Gibraltar’s New Prediction Markets Regime?

Predict Street Ltd operates through ADI Chain blockchain infrastructure, with the platform currently running in beta mode with select users before broader rollout. The company serves as a subsidiary of Finstreet Limited and maintains operational ties to Abu Dhabi Global Market, where its parent group operates within regulated financial markets infrastructure.

Additionally, the platform secured a partnership with DAZN following its FIFA World Cup 2026 arrangement. The operator develops a free-to-play offering designed to expand access and reduce regulatory friction alongside its core forecasting product.

The approval process attracted scrutiny from industry observers. Investigative reporting revealed that Predict Street obtained its Gibraltar gambling license nine days after its controlling company incorporated in the jurisdiction. Further examination uncovered that the platform’s founder had settled insider trading accusations in India with a six-figure payment, while its CEO faced links to Qatargate, a major EU lobbying scandal. The head of anti-money laundering accepted a two-year ban on financial activity in Gibraltar after overseeing AML failures at a previous employer.

The operator remains subject to Gibraltar Gambling Division’s standard compliance requirements, including anti-money laundering obligations and consumer protection rules applicable to licensed betting intermediaries. The platform serves users across sports, culture, politics, and real-world events with blockchain-based settlement.

How Does Gibraltar’s Approach Differ from Global Regulators?

Gibraltar’s approach to prediction markets regulation diverges fundamentally from global frameworks. The territory classifies prediction markets under gambling legislation, whereas the United States regulates them as derivatives through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This classification affects tax treatment, consumer protections, and platform perception by traders.

The CFTC asserts exclusive federal jurisdiction, arguing event contracts satisfy multiple sub-clauses of the swap definition in Section 1a(47)(A) of the Commodity Exchange Act, including options and event-contingent transactions with potential economic consequences. The agency contends Section 2(a)(1)(A) grants exclusive jurisdiction over swaps and futures traded on contract markets, leaving no room for state gambling law application.

Conversely, multiple US states challenge this position. Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes filed criminal charges against Kalshi on March 17, 2026, for operating unlicensed gambling and election wagering. The CFTC secured a temporary restraining order on April 10, 2026, barring Arizona from pursuing criminal charges against designated contract markets. The agency has initiated lawsuits against Connecticut, Illinois, Arizona, New York, Wisconsin, and Minnesota since April 2026.

By comparison, European jurisdictions maintain restrictive stances. Belgium, Cyprus, France, Germany, Greece, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Switzerland, and Ukraine imposed bans through national gambling legislation. Great Britain’s Gambling Commission stated prediction markets cannot classify as non-gambling products.