Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Gambling Concerns, Presidential Betting

Indonesia has blocked Polymarket access after the prediction platform hosted betting markets on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before his term expires in 2029. The government action highlights growing tensions between cryptocurrency-based prediction markets and strict gambling prohibitions in the Southeast Asian nation. One market launched on May 21 allowed users to wager on various exit dates for the president, including May 31, June 30, and December 31, 2026. The Indonesia Polymarket market recorded more than $46,000 in trading volume, with traders pricing an 18% probability of the president leaving by the end of 2026. Gambling remains illegal in Indonesia, prompting authorities to crack down on platforms they classify as online betting operations.

Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Gambling Violations

Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs announced the block on Friday, categorizing Polymarket as an “online gambling site disguised as a prediction market.” Alexander Sabar, the ministry’s director general of digital space supervision, stated the government would not provide space for any form of online gambling in Indonesia.

“Activities like Polymarket involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes, thus violating Indonesian law,” Sabar explained. He emphasized that platforms allowing users to wager money on uncertain outcomes remain gambling products, even when they use blockchain technology or crypto assets.

Consequently, the ministry moved beyond simply blocking website access. Authorities traced affiliated social media accounts for potential restrictions across other digital channels, ensuring comprehensive access prevention across various platforms. The ministry announced plans to extend similar restrictions to other prediction market services suspected of facilitating online gambling practices.

The action aims to protect the public, particularly younger digital users and participants in the national digital space, from speculative digital betting and potential financial losses. Authorities urged Indonesians not to access or participate in digital betting activity, including markets using crypto assets.

Since President Prabowo took office in October 2024, Komdigi has blocked approximately 3.4 million websites deemed to facilitate gambling. The ministry stated it would continue coordinating with law enforcement and other stakeholders to monitor similar platforms operating in Indonesian digital space.

Presidential Betting Market Triggers Government Action

The specific contract appeared on the platform between May 20 and May 21, according to various reports. Polymarket’s rules stated the contract would resolve to ‘Yes’ if Prabowo stopped serving as president within the stated period, including through resignation, removal, detention, or another condition that prevented him from performing the role.

Traders assigned different probability levels to each exit date. The market priced a 1% chance of the president leaving by May 31, increasing to 2% by June 30 [23]. By December 31, 2026, traders estimated an 18% probability of early departure, despite Prabowo’s five-year presidential term being set to run until October 2029.

The Indonesia Polymarket contract attracted more than $46,000 in trading volume [23] across the three date options. Users placed wagers using cryptocurrency, betting on whether the Indonesian leader would cease holding office before completing his term.

The platform had previously hosted political markets related to Indonesia. A 2024 market on Prabowo’s election victory generated $270,568 in trading volume. That earlier market resolved after Prabowo won the February 14, 2024 presidential election, demonstrating the platform’s history of hosting Indonesian political events before the current presidency exit market sparked regulatory intervention.

Prediction Markets Face Growing Global Scrutiny

Polymarket faces restrictions in 33 countries as of March 2026. Regulators worldwide classify the platform as unlicensed gambling rather than financial trading.

Australia’s Communications and Media Authority determined prediction market platforms constitute illegal online gambling in February 2026. France’s National Gaming Authority described them as unauthorized gambling sites under French law. The Dutch National Gambling Authority ordered Polymarket to cease targeting Dutch consumers, imposing penalties on Adventure One QSS Inc. for operating without proper licensing. New Zealand’s Department of Internal Affairs stated offshore prediction market platforms are not authorized because they meet the country’s gambling definition. Singapore’s Gambling Regulatory Authority ordered internet service providers to block access, displaying notices about illegal gambling sites. The UK Gambling Commission clarified that real-money prediction markets would be regulated as gambling products.

While Polymarket crossed $9 billion in cumulative trading volume for 2024, concerns about market integrity emerged. A Columbia University study revealed up to 25% of volume may involve wash trading, spiking to 60% in December 2024. Traders engage in fake transactions to maximize potential token airdrop allocation without genuine risk.

Insider trading incidents raised alarms. A U.S. soldier was indicted for using confidential information to win $400,000 on a Maduro capture bet. Twelve suspicious accounts profited $330,000 from well-timed trades before U.S. air strikes on Iran. U.S. senators subsequently banned themselves from prediction market trading in April 2026.