Mark Zuckerberg Orders Meta to Build Prediction Markets App
Mark Zuckerberg
Mark Zuckerberg has ordered Meta to develop a prediction markets app, directing the tech giant into one of the internet’s fastest-growing sectors. Prediction markets, particularly platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi where users bet on outcomes ranging from sports events to political addresses, have emerged as some of the fastest-growing destinations on the internet. Meta’s entry into this space carries significant weight, as more than 3.56 billion people visit one or more of the company’s apps daily. Hence, the move positions Meta to compete directly with established prediction market platforms.
Zuckerberg Orders Meta to Enter Prediction Markets
The New York Times first reported that Mark Zuckerberg directed a small team to start building the new product internally called “Arena”. According to two employees not authorized to speak publicly about the project, Mark Zuckerberg instructed the team to create a standalone app where people can guess the outcome of real-world events. The app has also been codenamed “Antwerp” and “FBForecast” in internal documents.
Meta confirmed to CNBC that the prediction markets app would not use actual money to trade on the platform, a contrast to other prediction markets where traders use cash to speculate on future events. Users would initially place bets with video game points instead of real money, but the app could feature bets with real money in the future. Two employees told the Times the app would be separate from Meta’s social media platforms, Instagram and Facebook.
Meta briefly ran a similar prediction market app called Forecast during 2020, but quietly shut down the app two years later. Prediction markets took off in recent years, with companies like Polymarket and Kalshi recording over $23.80 billion in total trading volume in April. Traditional sports betting companies, including both DraftKings and FanDuel, launched their own prediction markets over the last year.
What Will Meta’s Prediction Markets App Offer?
Internal documents reveal Arena will harness artificial intelligence to power core functions of the Mark Zuckerberg Meta prediction market initiative. The app plans to use Llama, Meta’s large language model, to automatically generate questions from trending topics. AI will also deliver personalized market recommendations to users who download the app.
Meta’s approach differs from competitors through its AI-driven resolution process. Artificial intelligence will have the final say over whether something did or did not happen. This resolution will occur in near real-time. The wagering follows a yes or no question format, similar to Kalshi and Polymarket.
Users will receive a daily virtual allotment of play money to bet on the outcome of future events instead of wagering real money. Meta plans to test a prototype with employees before the full public launch for both iPhones and Android devices. No exact release date has been specified.
User reception presents challenges for Mark Zuckerberg. Just over 6% of poll respondents expressed high interest in trying the app, while 33% said Meta’s backing actually decreases their likelihood of trying it. More than half of respondents don’t trust Meta with this type of product. But among current prediction market users, 72% expressed high interest in trying Arena.
Industry Reactions and Competitive Implications
Stock markets responded immediately to news of the Mark Zuckerberg Meta prediction market initiative. DraftKings fell 2% after the report surfaced, while Flutter Entertainment declined nearly 2% before recovering to close up 0.4%. Trading platform Robinhood, which offers contracts from various prediction market platforms, also dropped following the announcement.
Investors treated the report as a distribution threat on account of Meta’s massive user base. Opening Bell Media co-founder Phil Rosen noted that if Meta executed properly, it would destroy Polymarket and Kalshi because Meta possesses unmatched distribution capabilities.
The competitive landscape has shifted dramatically. Kalshi raised more than $1.00 billion at a $22.00 billion valuation earlier this year. Polymarket has been in talks to raise additional capital at roughly a $15.00 billion valuation. Combined monthly global trading volume at Kalshi and Polymarket rose from less than $5.00 billion in September 2025 to about $24.00 billion in April.
