Prediction Markets Capture 27% of Sports Bets During World Cup

Prediction markets captured 27% of all legal US sports-betting volume during the World Cup, marking a significant shift in the gambling landscape. The surge represents a dramatic increase from just 9% at the beginning of the year, according to H2 Gambling Capital estimates. Kalshi, the largest player in the space, experienced unprecedented growth during the tournament, surpassing both DraftKings and FanDuel in daily mobile app users. Indeed, the platform doubled its previous trading peak just weeks into the competition. Polymarket likewise saw rapid expansion across both its international exchange and new US platform.

Prediction Markets Capture 27% of World Cup Sports Betting Volume

Weekly trading volumes across prediction markets reached £11.52 billion for the first time last week, while outstanding bets hit a record £1.27 billion for the third consecutive week. The data underscores the rapid expansion these platforms experienced during the tournament’s opening phase.

Kalshi dominated the space, accounting for 62% of total trading volume compared to 28% for Polymarket. The platform posted £24.62 billion in total notional trading volume in June, representing a 70% jump from May. Sports contracts comprised approximately 85% of this trading activity. World Cup-specific markets alone generated £17.81 billion on Kalshi, with £5.88 billion occurring in June before group rounds concluded.

Polymarket recorded £8.58 billion in overall trading volume on its international exchange, setting a new monthly record. Its regulated US platform separately logged £2.78 billion, nearly double May’s total.

Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group launched in June, processed £1.59 billion in its debut month. The platform already accounts for 7% of the US prediction market. According to Artemis, Rothera’s weekly trading volumes exploded from £1.67 million to £639.30 million since Robinhood began routing wagers to the exchange in late May.

How Prediction Markets Gained Competitive Advantage Over Traditional Sportsbooks

Federal regulation under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission allowed prediction markets to operate across nearly all US states, while traditional sportsbooks remained restricted to jurisdictions with legal sports betting. Kalshi operates legally in every state except Nevada, consequently giving the platform access to major markets like California, Texas, and Florida where conventional wagering remains prohibited.

The structural differences between prediction markets and sportsbooks created additional advantages. Prediction markets function as peer-to-peer exchanges where participants trade against each other rather than against a bookmaker. Companies generate revenue through commissions and transaction fees instead of customer losses, removing the inherent conflict of interest present in traditional sports betting.

Lower operational costs translated to better odds for users. Prediction markets charge nominal fees on winning trades compared to the substantial vigorage built into sportsbook pricing. Platforms rarely impose monetary trading limits or ban successful participants, in contrast to sportsbooks that routinely restrict profitable customers.

ADI Predictstreet secured status as the Official Prediction Market Partner of the FIFA World Cup 2026, providing unprecedented legitimacy and visibility. Financial services companies entered the space, with Robinhood offering markets powered by Kalshi and ForecastEx. JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president of futures and international, noted the platforms provide access to asset classes previously unavailable to retail participants.

Traditional Gambling Companies Struggle Despite Prediction Markets Growth

Flutter Entertainment and DraftKings experienced substantial stock declines as prediction markets gained traction. Flutter fell 50% over six months, while DraftKings dropped 45% from its February 2025 peak. The companies lost £9.53 billion and £9.53 billion in market capitalization respectively. Year-to-date performance through June showed Flutter down 14% and DraftKings declining 22%.

Revenue growth projections reflected mounting pressure from emerging competitors. Analysts forecast DraftKings revenue at £5.40 billion for 2026, representing just 12% year-over-year growth. Flutter anticipated £14.53 billion in revenue, likewise up 12%. DraftKings reported a 31% year-over-year decline in gross gaming revenue for the week ending January 25.

Flutter responded by investing £238.25 million into FanDuel Predicts, launching the platform nationwide through a partnership with CME Group. The application became available to trade in all 50 states, though sports markets remained restricted to select jurisdictions. Jefferies estimated FanDuel Predicts could generate £99.27 million in annual revenues not yet reflected in company guidance.