Kalshi Enters Brazil Market in First International Expansion

Kalshi, the prediction markets exchange recently valued at $5 billion, has entered Brazil as its first expansion outside the United States. The platform will partner with XP to offer U.S. investors and select Brazilian clients contracts tied to Brazil’s economy, including events such as inflation and interest rates. This Kalshi brazil market expansion comes as the company demonstrates remarkable growth metrics, notably achieving 200x trading volume growth and 20x user base expansion in the past year. In addition, Kalshi crossed $1 billion in revenue run rate, establishing itself as a major player in prediction markets.

Kalshi Announces Brazil as First International Market

XP International, a company within the XP Inc. group, announced a strategic partnership with Kalshi to bring prediction markets to Brazilian investors. XP Inc. stands as Brazil’s largest brokerage by client base, positioning itself as the first financial institution in Brazil to introduce this asset class to the country.

The partnership establishes a clear operational structure. XP manages local distribution, client relationships, and regulatory interactions in Brazil, while Kalshi provides the trading technology, market design, and risk-management tools behind the event contracts. Initially, the contracts will be available to Kalshi’s US investors and to a limited group of XP clients who hold international accounts. The products will be listed through XP’s US brokerage arm, allowing both firms to operate within existing regulatory frameworks.

Clear Corretora clients with international investment accounts through XP International will gain access to these prediction markets. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara stated the company sees Brazil the way the U.S. was years ago with prediction markets, noting it’s their second country, so they will be able to go faster than they did in the U.S. when starting. Lucas Rabechini, head of financial products at XP, said the payoff structures resemble derivative products that many of the firm’s clients already use.

How Does This Expansion Fit Kalshi’s Global Vision?

The Brazil partnership represents the initial phase of a larger global strategy. Kalshi completed a Series D funding round exceeding $300 million led by Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, with participation from Paradigm. Additional investors included CapitalG, Coinbase Ventures, General Catalyst, and Spark Capital. The funding round valued the platform at $5 billion.

Following this capital raise, Kalshi launched in over 140 countries, positioning itself as the world’s only unified global prediction market. International users can access the platform through the Kalshi website with an identical product experience to American users. The company has not disclosed all markets where the platform is expanding, instead referring to a membership agreement that lists 38 restricted jurisdictions. Among the restricted countries are Canada, France, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and Venezuela.

China and India are part of the worldwide growth plan. These two countries represent approximately 18% and 17% of the world’s population respectively.

In addition to geographic expansion, Kalshi entered a strategic partnership with Tradeweb to expand institutional access to prediction markets. Tradeweb made a minority investment in Kalshi. The initial phase integrates Kalshi’s real-time event probability data into Tradeweb’s electronic trading platform.

What Fuels Kalshi’s Rapid Growth Trajectory?

Sports betting drove Kalshi’s explosive growth trajectory. The platform introduced sporting events in January 2025, subsequently achieving a daily record of £0.79 billion in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday. January trading volume reached nearly £7.94 billion, with most activity tied to sports. In fact, about 90% of activity on Kalshi remains sports-related.

This surge attracted competitive responses from established players. Robinhood, Coinbase, FanDuel, and DraftKings all announced rival prediction market services in a bid to capture market share. Meanwhile, Kalshi and competitor Polymarket entered discussions for fundraising at roughly £15.88 billion valuations, nearly double their previous valuations.

The rapid expansion triggered legal challenges. Eight lawsuits from state gambling commissions and Indian tribes accused Kalshi of operating an unlicensed sports gambling platform, while Kalshi filed six suits against state regulators, contending federal oversight supersedes state gambling rules. The platform operates under Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulation rather than state gambling agencies, subjecting it to fewer restrictions.

Open interest surpassed £158.83 million in late September, representing growth of over 300% from less than £39.71 million in April. Kalshi projects £39.71 billion in annualized trading volume.